Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Sometimes being let down is unavoidable. After last weekend’s incredibly robust slate of Pauper events it feels jarring to see only two Challenges fire on a weekend. It was not so long ago that two events were standard but now it feels out of place. There’s another lingering sense of unease; one that warrants some more discussion. Glitter Affinity has emerged as the top deck in Pauper which has led to quite a bit of discussion.
Let’s get the big question out of the way first: is Glitter Affinity a “problem”? My response is an unsatisfying “it’s hard to say”. Until last weekend the strategy had mired in the middle of the pack during Murders at Karlov Manor season but then broke out with some absolutely ostentatious numbers. I am known to say that I only start to worry if trends emerge and while the weekend of March 2-3 was a singular data point, we now have two.
But there’s additional context to this conundrum. Kuldotha Red not only been incredibly popular for several months but it has also been fairly dominant. Even last weekend the red deck was the most popular archetype in the Qualifier tournament. This week, Kuldotha Red had seven total appearances in the Challenges and one finish across two Top 32s. I’m not going to waste anyone’s time with a rhetorical “what’s changed?” because the answer is “nothing”. Instead it is plausible that the meta has adjusted to current iteration of red in a way that has rendered it less effective. Normally such a shift would be associated with a rise in another archetype that could eat unto the meta share.
Is this what is happening with Glitter Affinity? Possibly. It is also possible that in the wake of Glitter’s overwhelming dominance last weekend that more people picked it up in an information cascade. Couple this with the relatively slow rate of adjustment in Pauper and we can start to see an opening for a dominant performance by Glitter Affinity.
So what is Glitter Affinity, exactly? It is a low to the ground aggressive deck that uses cheap creatures and the Affinity mechanic to flood the board. It has a light tempo gameplan with Metallic Rebuke to keep the opponent off balance and has the capability to reload with both Of One Mind and Thoughcast. While it can put a lot of material on the battlefield it does most of its damage with All That Glitters. In this way plays like a curve based aggro deck albeit one with a Bogles style gear. It is this extra gear that can prove troublesome. The cards that are traditionally good against go wide decks suffer when faced with a sufficiently large threat and focusing on the biggest creature means you might get run over by Myr Enforcers. Glitter has the ability to apply a ton of pressure early thanks to its curve and Springleaf Drum, meaning that the rest of the format needs to build with these opening draws in mind.
So how can you approach the meta with Glitter Affinity in mind? It’s easy to say “removal spells” but what does that look like? Cast Down and Snuff Out are great but both come at a cost, either in life points or in trading negatively in terms of tempo and mana efficiency. Galvanic Blast might be able to hit everything but both look a bit anemic when facing down a turn two Myr Enforcer. A card like Electrostatic Bolt can hit almost every relevant creature in the deck and has the advantage of costing a single mana, without any other conditions. Vendetta might not be as powerful as Snuff Out but it does have the upside of not costing you 20% of your starting life total against a deck where most creatures have two toughness. This option does suffer against a resolved copy of All That Glitters but the goal should be to try and keep the board clear when resources are low and Glitters cannot keep up interaction in the form of Metallic Rebuke.
There are other cards that fly under the radar when it comes to fighting against glitter Affinity: green cards. Green is at a loose end in Pauper at the moment as it functions as a color to help grant the Initiative or as part of a hypermana strategy. That being said the deck has two one mana answers to All That Glitters that, while not game ending sideboard cards, can throw a wrench in the works. Natural State is nothing new and at one mana it can pick off many of the artifact threats in the deck as well as All That Glitters. Pick Your Poison has utility in all three of its modes but it does require a bit more set up to be at full efficacy.
I want to be perfectly clear: running these cards will not make your deck have a good matchup against Glitter Affinity. Instead they are options I feel are under-explored.
You’ll notice I am advocating here for cheap options as opposed to cards that are often seen as “hammers” against Affinity like Dust to Dust. That is because Glitter Affinity tries to win the game by capitalizing on tempo. Tempo in Magic is a notoriously nebulous concept but in this instance it can be seen as the ease of deploying threats in a mana efficient manner. Waiting until turn three to potentially hit two artifacts while not developing your board in the face of multiple threats might win you a game on card advantage but if you’re facing lethal damage it does not matter. By leaning more on cheap points of interaction you have the potential to not falling too far behind on mana spent while also pushing the game towards a point where Glitter’s early tempo advantage matters less. We’ve all been in games where someone jumps out ahead and applies a ton of pressure, only to peter out in the midgame when the control in the matchup turns the corner. That is what you should be trying to do in these instances – survive long enough that the early beats do not matter.
Does this mean that sometimes you’re going to “just lose” to a very good Glitters draw? Yes. But that does not mean the game plan is incorrect, just that it isn’t a guarantee. Tournament Magic is a two player affair and your opponent is not going to roll over to a good sideboard card hitting the stack.
Looking forward you should be thinking about the format with All That Glitters at the front of your mind. How can you stop it from connecting and how can you survive once it hits the battlefield? Like any emergent threat it is important not to bring the wrong answers because as Pauper has taught us over the past two years there is no such thing as the wrong threat.
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