March 2-3 Pauper Weekend Recap

Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.

There are a lot of stories from last weekend in the world of Magic Online Pauper. In addition to the three regularly scheduled Challenges there was also a Qualifier tournament. The Qualifier had 219 participants, making it larger than the other three Challenges combined. Historically these larger events provide a different perspective on the format as they attract players who are interested in taking the next step on the competitive ladder and as such might have an understanding of the format that deviates from the folks who play it more often. Looking at the events side-by-side – that is all the Challenges and the Qualifiers – one thing becomes apparent: the weekend belonged to Glitter Affinity.

This chart represents the total metagame for all three regularly scheduled Challenges that took place last weekend. For the first time this season Kuldotha Red was not the most popular deck in the Challenges with straight up Blue-White Glitter Affinity taking that crown. It is possible that after weeks of Kuldotha Red sitting at the top of the heap players felt that having an assertive strategy with access to a counterspell could give them an edge. If you believe Pauper to be a format where racing matters, throwing a stick labeled Metallic Rebuke into your opponent’s wheel can make them stumble while you cruise to victory.

The data from the Top 32 tells a slightly different story. Not only was Glitter Affinity the most popular deck in the Challenges, but it was utterly dominant on the weekend. Leading off it was the most popular deck in the Top 32 with over 27% of that field with ten Top 8s and two wins. It’s adjusted Win+ ratio was an even 1 and it;s adjusted K-Win ratio was 2.5, meaning the deck averaged a finish in the Top 16, trending towards Top 8. The most striking stat is that it’s winner’s metagame volume was an astound 34.67%, more than doubling its overall meta presence. It is not out of the ordinary for a deck’s Top 32 finishers to out perform its overall volume but this increase indicates a dominant performance. This is backed up by a 1.55 adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement, the best of any deck in the Challenges this weekend.

It was a slightly different story in the Qualifier. Glitter Affinity was the fifth most popular deck in the field in a meta breakdown that looks more in line with the past several weeks of play. Again the deck starts to break away once we examine the Top 32 where it was the most popular archetype with five finishes and a winner’s metagame volume of 20.63%, outpacing it’s raw Top 32 rate but about 5%. This is not as stark of a jump as the regular Challenges but it is still notable. When Glitter Affinity really separated itself from the pack is in the adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement – a whopping 2.76. The next best performer was Flicker Tron with 0.98. The robots were certainly on a rampage this weekend.

What is Glitter Affinity doing to make it so successful? First, last weekend’s builds largely ignored Galvanic Blast which reduced the number of lands that enter tapped while also making it more likely that they can cast their spells. These decks also have increased redundancy thanks to the pair of Novice Inspector and Thraben Inspector, which both provide a body for All That Glitters and increases the auras impact. As mentioned early the deck can apply pressure early while leaving up countermagic to make sure that the opponent’s plays are for naught. Glitter Affinity also requires a slightly different approach than Kuldotha Red. Whereas the red deck can often falter in the face of sweepers (provided the control deck has a high enough life total), resolving an All That Glitters before a wipe can be resolved renders this angle of attack moot.

Another thing to consider is the prevalence of Dimir Terror over the weekend. While not a true control deck the strategy can assume the role thanks to its bevy of removal and countermagic. Dimir Terror was the second most popular archetype on the weekend but struggled to convert that presence to Top 32s in the Qualifier. Glitter Affinity can get on the board underneath Terror while also having cheap enough spells to render Spell Pierce dead. Sideboard copies of Obsidian Acolyte can be a back breaker for Cast Down and Snuff Out. Unexpected Fangs can put you out of range of burn spells but does very little if your opponent can leave back a 10/12 Ornithopter on defense. It is possible that the prevalence of this deck helped to create a lane where Glitter Affinity could succeed.

What about Kuldotha Red? It was just as popular as Dimir Terror in the Challenges but had a mediocre showing in those tournaments. It was the most popular strategy in the Swiss rounds of the Qualifier and ended up the third best archetype in that tournament. The more rounds that get played it makes sense that the red deck might struggle, as high impact sideboard cards are more likely to show up. Despite this, and its reputation as a top deck in the format making it a target, the numbers it put up are more than respectable.

Another deck that suffered from the number of rounds this weekend is Black Gardens. The premier black based midrange build in the format faltered. Midrange is great when your game plan lines up correctly with the spells on the other side of the table. The longer the tournament goes the more likely it is that you’re going to see the wrong half of your deck. The abundance of aggression also reduces the number of potential turns in a game which can put the squeeze on Gardens over enough games played.

In a real blast from the past, Flicker Tron had a fantastic qualifier. Two Tron pilots made the Top 8 and one more finished in the Top 32. That was every Tron deck in the field. A 100% conversion rate to Top 32 is impressive especially given the variety in the field. Tron is a deck that wants to reach its end-game quickly because few decks can match Tron’s late-game power. To get these these decks both ran a full four copies of Moment’s Peace main in addition to two copies of Mystical Teachings to find them. This says nothing of the four Impulse to dig for Peace and Weather the Storm as another angle of defense. Finally Rhystic Circle shows up in the sideboard as yet another way to negate attacks on the life total. Tron came to win the game of survival. At the end of the day, though, the deck can still get run over by red if the aggro deck has a quick draw.

The last weekend in Pauper showcased the diversity in the format but also how dynamic it can be. While Kuldotha Red was still near the top of the heap Glitter Affinity, a deck which was firmly in the middle of the pack a week ago, rose to the top. Dimir Terror made its presence felt while Black Gardens took a step back. And this is to say nothing of Flicker Tron rising up from the ashes. CawGate and Dimir Faeries also showed up and performed well while Bogles, Boros Synth, Izzet Control, and Squirrel Dredge loudly proclaimed they were there too. At the end of the day next week you have to be prepared for aggressive strategies but I would also try to find a way to pinch off Ephemerate loops. Flicker Tron is not going to go quietly and coming prepared to win a slog seems like a worthwhile endeavor.

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