I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
As excited as I am for Murders at Karlov Manor, those cards have not been released yet. Put another way, we are still working our way through Lost Caverns of Ixalan season. What’s changed since last week? The January 20 and January 21 Challenges saw Dimir Faeries supplant Kuldotha Red as the most popular choice for the Challenges and also featured a notable decline in the raw volume of Black Gardens and Jeskai Glitters. This weekend also saw a rebound in the number of people playing in the tournaments so there were no negative records in our Top 32 results. Consequentially what we see coming out of last weekend could be seen as helping to clarify the format instead of muddying the waters.
Dimir decks proved themselves last weekend. Clocking in at just under 12% of the total meta last weekend, they were responsible for nearly a quarter of all lists run in the Challenges just a few days ago. While the three builds – Control, Faeries, and Tempo – share some cards and have endgames that bear more than a passing resemblance but are nonetheless distinct. All of these decks leverage countermagic and removal to great efficacy, trading one for one against decks that are trying to present threats while having outs to simply have more cards than other slower decks.
So then why then am I talking about Orzhov Midrange?
Czacza went undefeated on Sunday until losing in the finals for a total record of 9-1. Orzhov decks have had an up and down season thus far as they are largely contingent on having the right mix of supplemental threats and answers in order to find their metagame lane. This build is loaded with ways to draw cards in its artifacts but it also has a way to grind down an opponent’s resources in Hopeless Nightmare. White decks are quite adept at rebuying permanents and Nightmare not only pressures cards in hand but also can chip in for damage. Unlike Raven’s Crime Hopeless Nightmare does not cost you a card so any subsequent discards put you ahead instead of at parity. While the above deck does have some inevitability with Omen of the Dead I would like to see another way to turn the corner, especially given the closing speed of other decks in the format.
Orzhov Midrange was not a popular choice on the weekend and so the 1.86 adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement needs to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. Out of the decks with more Top 32 representation Dimir Control led the way with a aMSAR score of 1.4. Jeskai Glitters had the second best score out of the popular decks with a 0.57 aMSAR.
All of this is to say that Pauper continues to exist much as how it has in the wake of the recent ban. Things are largely balanced. Next week is my cyclical eight challenge check in and in the past six events no one archetype has topped 10% of Top 32 volume or winner’s meta volume – instead there are plenty of decks right around the 7% and 8% mark for winner’s meta volume. In that same six event span no deck has topped 10% of total volume. Now this is a relatively small sample size of events, and it will be interesting to see how the post-ban season shakes out, but for now Pauper is looking to be balanced. But that’s only half the equation so I want to know – are you finding the format fun?
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