I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Pauper is not a time capsule.
I want you to keep that in mind for today’s post. In case you have not yet heard, Monastery Swiftspear has been banned in Pauper. You can read the reasoning behind this update (and some of the other changes that were considered) in this post authored by Gavin Verhey on behalf of the Pauper Format Panel. If you want some insight into my thoughts on the format moving forward you can read that here.
During the tenure of its legality Monastery Swiftspear had a massive impact on Pauper. At a gameplay level it helped to polarize the metagame, encouraging decks to either win quickly or drag the game out through any means necessary to ensure survival. As more options were added to the available card pool, Swiftspear decks went from defining the metagame to warping the format around their inclusion. Looking at this phenomena at a format level, it was one of the first times in recent memory that an aggressive deck was one of the top strategies available in Pauper.
Pauper is not a time capsule. At various points the best deck in the format has been a control deck, a midrange deck, or a combo deck. An aggressive deck being a top tier strategy might be different but in it of itself is not anathema. When any deck warps the format around it that is when things warrant attention.
In the wake of the announcement there were more than a few voices who expressed discontent. The criticism was that this ban did not go after the correct card. Instead many people discussed Kuldotha Rebirth and the duo of Reckless Impulse and Wrenn’s Resolve. The central concept of these arguments seemed to boil down to “red should not have card draw”. While Rebirth enabled red to go wide (something it has always been able to do), the recent strength of red pushed this Scars of Mirrodin card to another level. Thanks to the low cost of powerful red spells these cards were essentially too good for Pauper and should be banned to bring red back to the pack.
Is Wrenn’s Resolve that much better than Of One Mind?
Pauper is not a time capsule. Red has had access to this style of card advantage for nearly a decade even if it is a relatively recent addition to Pauper. As these cards will continue to see print red will continue to have new choices to make in deck construction and the format will have to adapt to these new play patterns. That being said if one of these spells ever approaches the egregiousness of Treasure Cruise then something might have to give.
One of the biggest complaints of Pauper before the advent of the Pauper Format Panel was that it could stay stagnant for too long; that the metagame did not change quickly enough if at all. Recent years have given other strategies time in the spotlight even as old standbys continue to see heavy play and often perform rather well. As I have said before, Pauper has shifted from a midrange format to, at least for now, one where being assertive matters as well. Pining for the game play of your favorite era is a fine exercise but Pauper’s future cannot be shackled to its past.
Where does that leave things today? Aggressive decks, whether they are red or powered by Affinity remain viable. Time will tell if the absence of Swiftspear opens up the pool of effective removal that can help blunt assaults in the earliest turns of a game. Slower decks are more viable but by how much remains to be seen. And as Gavin said yesterday, if things are not working the Pauper Format Panel is willing to take further action.
For now we are entering a different format. Kuldotha Red was far and away the best deck in Pauper during Lost Caverns of Ixalan season with an adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 0.95 (the next best deck was CawGate at 0.59). Red is not going anywhere but I don’t expect it to be this far ahead of the field. Instead it is likely to come back to the pack. I think CawGate and Black Gardens (aMSAR of 0.49) are going to be a step behind, at least early on, as they adjust to a world without Swiftspear. White midrange, whether Boros or Orzhov, likely have an edge in the early going by being chock full of generically good cards. In other words, you better have a plan for Ephemerate strategies in week one.
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