I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Sometimes it can be hard to write about Pauper at this point in its life cycle. With a new set on the horizon it is exciting to look forward and consider what might be, as opposed to looking back and potentially bemoan what is. But that would be a disservice to what is happening in the final weeks of Wilds of Eldraine season.
Blue is ascending. Over the past month decks such as CawGate, Blue Terror, and Dimir Faeries have battled for the top spot in the metagame. Considering that for many months the top decks were either Kuldotha Red or some Affinity variant, this shift seems almost sudden and yet comfortable. Faeries, specifically, has been one of the top decks in Pauper for quite some time. Whether they are mono blue, Izzet, or Dimir, Spellstutter Sprite decks have been a staple of Pauper and their absence over the past several months has been felt.
So how did they return?
Over the course of the past several weeks CawGate began to position itself as an answer the the metagame. It had the tools to keep red decks in check and the ability to get around the large threats of Terror. At its core, however, the deck remains a blue-white midrange strategy. It relies on a light suite of interaction to stop key spells from the opponent and leverages its creature base to provide a form of virtual card advantage. You can’t counter the Embalm of Sacred Cat easily and eventually Basilisk Gate will force the opponent to either throw blockers in the way or lose all their life points. CawGate was able to position itself to go over the aggro decks and around the control decks.
Dimir Faeries eats this sort of midrange deck for lunch. The deck has access to better removal and more stack interaction. It can also play a “flash” game with Spellstutter Sprite coming down to leverage card flow on the next turn from one of its two Ninja so it can leave more mana open on its turns while CawGate runs a bevy of lands that enter the battlefield tapped and has to operate largely at sorcery speed. If CawGate goes over aggressive strategies and sidesteps control, Dimir Faeries sidesteps CawGate.
Traditionally, Boros strategies have been able to sidestep Dimir Faeries. Going wide with flyers such as Kor Skyfisher or Battle Screech tokens has been a solid counter to Faeries. I am not sure if that is the case any longer thanks to the addition of Murmuring Mystic, which can gum up the air just as easily as it clogs the ground. Instead decks may have to look for persistent forms of damage in the vein of Makeshift Munitions to try and keep the fair folk grounded. We have already seen black based midrange decks move back to Cuombajj Witches as an “answer” to tiny flying creatures.
Beating Dimir Faeries is not as simple as just answering their threats. Given the options at the deck’s disposal many strategies are unable to beat them card for card. Between Ninjas, the Monarch, hand scultping, and now Lorien Revealed it is incredibly difficult to out card Faeries using individual pieces of cardboard. Munitions and Witches are cards that stick around and provide virtual card advantage – that is they can render multiple opposing cards less useful by their mere presence. The goal here, then, is to find cards such as these and maneuver the game to a position where they can take over.
The other option is to go wide in a way that Faeries might struggle to stop. Traditionally Elves was well suited to this endeavor. While the deck has not picked up that many new toys it can still vomit out a veritable army thanks to Quirion Ranger and Priest of Titania. While a single Suffocating Fumes is unlikely to quash an elvish uprising, Arms of Hadar makes things more challenging.
As for next week? I would look for an Izzet deck that can not only leverage Murmuring Mystic and Makeshift Munitions, but also find a way to make another new sweeper – Sulfurous Blast – work. It should not be too hard considering the number of five toughness monsters available to blue these days.
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