I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
Three weeks into Wilds of Eldraine season and some trends are starting to emerge. Blue Terror and Kuldotha Red are proving themselves, at least in the early running, to be better than the field. Today let’s explore exactly how big of a gap it is we’re looking at.
The adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement measures an archetype against the average performance of a strategy in the Magic Online Top 32 Challenge Metagame, correct for volume. Over the first three weeks of this season, Blue Terror has an aMSAR score of 1.59 while Kuldotha Red has a score of 1.23. The next best archetype after these two is Gruul Ramp with a score of 0.24. That is pretty significant drop off but it does not tell us all that much in isolation.
Let’s compare it to Commander Masters season. After five weeks (10 Challenges), Kuldotha Red led the way with a 1.22 aMSAR. The next best performing deck was Glitter Affinity at 0.99 with Blue Terror not far behind at 0.91. There were actually seven archetypes that were within a single aMSAR point of Kuldotha Red which speaks to how last season there was a better sense of competitive balance at the top of the metagame. Going back even further there were five decks within one aMSAR point of the top performer during Lord of the Rings season (Dimir Terror, 1.38).
What does this all mean today? If the current trend continues I would say that there is a problem. At the same time I am not so sure that these results of indicative of the format. And it has something to do with “Name Sticker” Goblin. Newly legal on Magic Online, this Unfinity pastiche has amassed quite the reputation. Given the mechanical implementation of the card it will always be mana postitive and can provide explosive turns out of Kuldotha Red. All six of the Blue Terror decks that made Top 8 this weekend were running the full 8 copies of Blue Elemental Blast/Hydroblast. Whether this was correct or not does not matter in the abstract in that it was the fear of the Goblin and the reaction that led to these lists. At the same time it can be argued that it is correct to run all of this hate as it is the only way Blue Terror can compete against the red decks.
Both the blue and red decks at the top of the metagame run some of the best threats Pauper has ever seen. At the same time the format has access to the highest density of card advantage engines and the strongest removal in the history of competitive Pauper. All of this is to say that Pauper, as it exists today, is at an apex power level and is striving towards balance. It is always better to present a threat as you can pack the wrong answers, and I believe that is part of what we are seeing today in Pauper. Despite the fact that all three – threats, answers, engines – are the best they have ever been, it is easy to pick a threat and selecting the wrong removal suite or card advantage package can spell certain doom.
Pauper is no longer a format where you can simply draw more cards than an opponent and expect those options will carry you. Mistakes are costly and match-ups can be unforgiving. In light of the current wave of creatures that are turning sideways I would be very high on Vapor Snag next week. It can counter the Goblin trigger, remove a Glittering creature from Affinity, or buy much needed time against one of blue’s massive serpents.
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