I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final pair is call Meta Score and Meta Score Above Replacement, which takes the average of Win+ and K-Win to try and position an archetype against its field. This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance.
We are now firmly into The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth season. The impact of Lórien Revealed, Generous Ent, and Lembas continues to reverberate throughout the format. There is a clear top of the metagame, at least in the Challenges, and it looks a little different from last season.
Leading the way is Dimir Terror with a cumulative adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement (aMSAR) of 1.49, roughly one and a half wins better than the average Top 32 deck. It has the most Top 8s in the season thus far with 13 (out of 56 available Top 8 spots) alongside a win. Despite having a somewhat down weekend with an aMSAR of 0.75 (a full win less than the week prior), it still was the most popular deck in the Top 32 with 13 total appearances. The deck’s threats line up well with both Snuff Out and Skred and the builds can pack enough counter magic to play a solid “defend the crown” strategy. The deck can struggle when a board gets gummed up or when there are opponents who are well suited to win combat steps – remember, math is not just for blockers.
Grixis Affinity continues to put up numbers with a cumulative aMSAR of 0.78 but had the second best weekend with a 1.12 score. The deck continues to perform at a high level, adjusting to the new metagame and card pool by running some of the best cards available in the format. It is the fourth most popular Top 32 deck overall (20 appearances) and accounts for seven Top 8 finishes, but three overall wins. The advent of Cast into the Fire might hinder its plans somewhat, but for now Affinity continues to be a metagame force.
CawGate had a relatively rough go of it during March of the Machine season but appears to be back with a vengeance. The strategy does not crack the Top 5 in popularity but has a solid 0.59 aMSAR overall (with a gaudy score of 2.09 for the weekend of July 8 and 9). CawGate is leveraging the flexible mana base to, like Affinity, run some incredibly powerful and high impact cards. CawGate also benefits from the other two big decks running large creatures which in turn means fewer sweepers overall. Until such a time that Arms of Hadar, Suffocating Fumes, and Breath Weapon see a serious uptick in maindeck and sideboard slots CawGate should continue to perform.
There are two other decks that deserve a mention. First up is Red, combining both Reckless Burn and Kuldotha Red. Combined these two have an aMSAR of 0.1 (Kuldotha Red holds a 0.2 while Reckless Burn sits at -0.1, a little worse than an average Top 32 deck). None of this is to say these strategies are bad, just that given the length of Challenge level events they tend to fall off compared to other strategies. They still hold five total Top 8 slots and 30 total appearances, but it still clocks in in the back half of the Top Ten Power Rankings at the moment.
The other deck worth mentioning is Gruul Ramp (or Ponza). The strategy wants to destroy your lands and commit a haymaker like Avenging Hunter to the board. It has 23 total Top 32 appearances with 4 Top 8s and a decent aMSAR of 0.34 (behind the big three and Jeskai Ephemerate). This number is a bit misleading has it had two weekends where it performed worse than an average Top 32 deck (June 24-25 with a score of -0.17 and July 8-9 with a score of -0.1). Again this does not mean the strategy is deficient, but rather it is just not as good as some of the other options available.
These two strategies, however, can generate some of the biggest feels bad moments from heavily played decks. Losing to a Monastery Swiftspear high end draw can feel hopeless, as can having your second and third land destroyed by Mwonvuli Acid-Moss. The question for a competitive format is whether or not these moments should exist at the current level – are they a bug or a feature? I’m interested to hear constructive discussion on where people stand.
That being said next week I would come with a plan for 5/5s. Swirling Sandstorm and Breath Weapon both seem good if you can defend them from Hydroblast, so it is possible a “Monster” Tron deck could work if it could easily splash for Pyroblast.
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