I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.
Last week I made the note that current trends in the metagame were calling for a more versatile answer suite. I drew that conclusion in the wake of a rise in Faeries and shifts in the nature of red decks decks that could more easily adapt to the threats presented would perform well. This past weekend that seemed to be the case with three midrange decks – Black Gardens, Gruul Cascade, and Jeskai Ephemerate – all performing rather well. This continues the trend from last weekend where these decks started their ascent. But why now?
March of the Machine season began with a hesitancy around red and specifically the addition of Wrenn’s Resolve to the color’s repertoire and make no mistake, red continues to be good. However there are now multiple ways to play the deck – the more token focused Kuldotha Red and the more direct damage oriented Reckless Burn. While these both center on Lightning Bolt and Monastery Swiftspear they are fairly distinct strategies which in turn is leading to a more diverse looking metagame, at least at an archetype level. One can argue that these are just different takes on similar cores, but then again so are the various builds of Faeries (mono blue, Dimir, and Izzet).
So what does this have to do with midrange? It hinges, in a way, on Affinity. Affinity has long occupied the “control” role in the metagame even if it is not a true control deck. Thanks to Affinity’s robust card draw and long game engine it could easily outlast large swaths of the format. Recently the deck has adopted Somber Hoverguard for the first time in a long time, making it more susceptible to removal. As Affinity has become more vulnerable to the same spells that work against the rest of the metagame and the lower end of the meta – the aggressive strategies- diversify themselves, midrange decks have found an opportunity to occupy their traditional slot in an environment.
Midrange thrives when it can play the aggressive role against control and the control role against aggro. Since the metagame is making itself more susceptible to removal overall , midrange decks that pack answers have thrived. Black gardens and Jesaki Ephemerate make their bread by handling threats while a deck like Orzhov Ephemerate relies heavily on creatures. In this world, where midrange is taking the reigns, a deck like Gruul Cascade can emerge as a powerhouse since it attacks midrange at a weak point (their mana) while also having the opportunity to outclass opposing threats.
Next week I would be keen on trying to go under midrange. I am not all in on going back to the hyper aggression of red but a deck like Mono White Aggro, which is just large enough to roadblock red and Faeries while quick and resilient enough to beat up on black decks could find a lane. I would absolutely come with Ramosian Rally in this world because I’d want to be able to answer Breath Weapon out of Boros or Jeskai Ephemerate.
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