Want to learn more about the metrics I use in tracking the metagame? You can find an explainer here.
Outlaws of Thunder Junction season is drawing to a close. The final four weeks of the cycle took place without All That Glitters hanging over the format’s collective head. Last week we looked at three weeks worth of events but today we’re going to focus on the final weekend with it’s three Challenges and one Showcase Qualifier. A final review will be coming in the not too distant future but for now I want to explore this weekend in isolation.
Why explore four tournaments, separate from the rest of the season, especially with a high impact set coming down the pike? Pauper, traditionally, has evolved slowly. Even when strong cards are added the first implementations of the new options often come in existing shells. On top of that while Modern Horizons sets have caused shifts in the landscape they have done so in ways that were built upon Pauper’s history: Arcum’s Astrolabe fit neatly into existing Tron and Kor Skyfisher shells before taking on a life of its own; the Bridges slotted in alongside the Mirrodin Artifact Lands; Chatterstorm and Galvanic Relay looked to previous Storm shells. The cards in Modern Horizons 3 are powerful and could spawn entirely new archetypes. At the same time there’s a very good chance that in Week 1 we are going to see Refurbished Familiar brought back with Blood Fountain or blinked with Ephemerate in decks that are otherwise known.
The weekend of June 7-9 saw three Challenges as well as a massive (for Pauper) 203 player Showcase Qualifier. All told there were 383 entrants that played at least one round in these tournaments. Kuldotha Red was the most popular deck on the weekend with 63 total appearances, accounting for 16.45% of the entire field. CawGate took silver in the popularity contest with 47 total appearances, good for 12.27% of the total metagame. Grixis Affinity also ended up on the podium with 29 total appearances (7.57%), barely beating out Gruul Cascade (28 appearances/7.31%) and Rakdos Madness (27/7.05%).
Moving into next week the top three decks should be on everyone’s radar. Kuldotha Red continues to set the pace for Pauper and while the latest release does not provide any clear additions, the fact remains that red isn’t getting worse. Getting on board early with a bevy of small creatures, only to turn them sideways later after kicking Goblin Bushwhacker, all while backed up with Galvanic Blast, remains a great way to win games. It’s possible Sarpadian Simulacrum supplants Voldaren Epicure as an artifact that turns on Kuldotha Rebirth while also being the correct creature type for Goblin Grenade, giving the deck a small boost in the synergy camp.
When it comes to the Top 32 metagame, Kuldotha Red moves into second place with 12.5% of the total Top 32 meta, 13.04% of the winner’s meta, and an Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement of 1.16. Kuldotha Red performed admirably and took a reasonable dip in presence with the cut to the Top 32. The winner, however, was CawGate. In the same number of Top 32 appearances it ended up with 14.2% of the winner’s metagame and an aMSAR of 1.52.
CawGate is a midrange control deck that leverages the interaction between Brainstorm and Squadron Hawk (not to mention Lórien Revealed) to increase the overall quality of the cards in its hand. Its light permission suite is designed to ensure you can end the game with an evasive creature enhanced by Basilisk Gate. It is the quintessential blue midrange deck in Pauper, plodding along as a reasonable choice, often positioning itself thanks to a flexible mana base and sideboard. Basilisk Gate is a resilient threat that just requires a creature to get the ball rolling. CawGate does not have any clear gains from the latest set, but a card like Perilous Landscape could find a home if new builds desire a more reliable splash or want another shuffle effect while not missing out on mana development.
Although it did not have the best numbers on the weekend, Gruul Cascade (or something similar) is likely to flood the queues in the early going. 7.31% of the overall metagame is nothing to sneeze at, it dipped to 6.25% of the Top 32 metagame, dropping further to 4.1% of the Winner’s Metagame, ending up with a -0.17 aMSAR. So why am I bullish on this strategy? First, it won the Super Qualifier which always provides a small boost in popularity. Second, green ramp strategies are getting a gift in Colossal Dreadmask. A six drop that ca turn any old Arbor Elf into a real threat is attractive. Couple this with Horrific Assault, which might be a reason to return to Ulamog’s Crusher, and you get a strategy poised to run over the competition in the early going.
Going into next weekend, if I wasn’t keen on bringing something new, I’d be bringing Ethereal Armor to the party. Both Bogles and Heroic have been on the upswing recently (even if they are still mired in the scrum around the Top 32). These decks are getting a few new options thanks to new creatures with Bestow, as well as a focus on cards caring about Modified creatures and some neat combat tricks. On top of all this these decks are very good at applying pressure and you have a mix that is ripe for these strategies to have a strong showing.
I want to take a moment to thank all my Patrons I am going to do my level best to keep providing you with the kind of content that brought you here in the first place. If you are interested in supporting my work, rewards for my Patreon start at just $1.
Can’t make a commitment to Patreon? I have a Ko-Fi where you can make a one time contribution.
Looking for another way to support my work? Click here for my TCGPlayer affiliate link. Any purchases through the link let the folks there know you like my content!
NerdtotheCore 