In an effort to clean up my blog posts I wanted to collect all the different metrics I use to track the Magic Online Pauper Challenges. Given that I’ve been doing this for a number of years and have refined my metrics over time, I figured that collecting them in one place for posterity would be wise. I track stats on a weekend-by-weekend, four week collection, and release cycle basis.
Total Volume: This measures the total volume of a deck/archetype as present in the Challenges. This takes into account all entrants, even those who do not participate in a round. This number is useful in understanding how prevalent a deck is in a given tournament/season, but does not do much else.
Win+: This is a measure of a deck’s relative performance against other decks in the Top 32. Roughly speaking, an X-2 record is the equivalent of a Win+ score of 1 (and roughly equates to a Top 16 finish). Win+ only tracks Swiss results and only for decks that finish in the Top 32. Win+:Volume is an average of Win+ across all Top 32 entries of an archetype; (adjusted)Win+:Volume adjusts this score, normalizing the most popular Top 32 deck and basing the results on this “normal”. As these scores approach 1 it is more likely a deck has a Top 16 finish. A score above 1 can indicate a trend towards averaging a Top 8 finish.
K-Wins: The sum of all wins less all losses, Top 8 inclusive, for decks that finish in the Top 32. K-Win:Volume is an average of K-Wins across all Top 32 entries of an archetype; (adjusted)K-Win:Volume adjusts this score, normalizing the most popular Top 32 deck and basing the results on this “normal”. The higher the KW:V or (a)KW:V score, the better an archetype has performed in the Top 32.
Winner’s Volume: Taking the average of a deck’s Top 32 volume, a deck’s volumetric share of Win+ and volumetric share of K-Win, this percentage provides an approximation of a deck’s presence in a true, or winner’s metagame. The delta between this number and its Top 32 volume help to provide an understanding as to whether or not a deck is over or under performing based upon how often it is played.
Meta Score: The average of a deck’s Win+ and K-Win score with the Meta Score Above Replacement taking the average of all Meta Scores and measuring a deck’s distance from this average. Adjusted Meta Score again sets the most populous deck as a baseline and the Adjusted Meta Score Above Replacement measures an archetype’s performance relative to the average Adjusted Meta Score. These numbers are helpful in understanding the relative strength of a deck in a given data set as compared to the other decks in the set.
Expected Top 8%: A measure I do not use as often anymore, this looks at the number of decks that appear in the Top 32 and using a coefficient of 0.3125, attempts to understand how often a strategy should appear in the Top 8 of a Challenge. Expected Top 8s then ascribes a number to this estimation. Using actual Top 8 information we can then extrapolate how much a strategy is “over-performing” as related to its Top 32 presence. The 0.3125 coefficient was selected based upon how often decks with an X-2 record make Top 8 on average over a seasonal sample set.
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