I use a few different metrics when looking at the Top 32 metagame. The first is just Raw Volume. The second is Win+, which takes the sum of all wins at X-2 or better in the Swiss and assigns a score; Win+ is helpful in measuring a deck’s Swiss round performance. K-Wins takes all of a deck’s wins and subtracts its losses, Top 8 inclusive; this helps to give a measure of overall performance. The final is one I call True Volume, which takes the average of all three volumes (Actual, Win+, K-Win). This number helps to provide the most robust image of a deck’s performance in the metagame.
We are currently in the middle of a midrange resurgence in Pauper. Over the past three weeks three dedicated midrange decks have won a Challenge – Black Gardens twice and Gruul Cascade/Ponza – while two midrange killers (Boros Bully and Dimir Faeries) have also taken down the top spot. This runs contrary to the throughline of the past year or so with Monastery Swiftspear powered red decks dominating the format. So, how did we get here?
There is a difference between a deck defining a metagame and dominating a field. Monastery Swiftspear decks continue to help define Pauper, existing as a limiting factor on the format in the way Spellstutter Sprite decks and Monarch decks have done in the past. Red continues to occupy this space and the rest of the field has to adjust accordingly. Yet if March of the Machine season is any indication this adjustment seems to be working as midrange has been on the rise since the weekend of May 6 and 7. In the 11 Challenge level events that have taken place since May 6, five have been won by a traditional midrange deck and the macro has placed in the Top 8 27 times (just under 31% of all top 8s). These numbers are hardly gaudy but if decks of this stripe can find sustained success they can serve as an important counterpoint to some of the more polarized strategies.
Visualize the metagame as a spectrum, with Red representing the heavily played “fast” deck and Affinity taking the role of the heavily played “slow” deck. Despite the surrounding structure these archetypes are both heavily reliant on creatures. Midrange decks in Pauper tend to excel at removing creatures and gumming up the board to absorb combat damage. The ascent of Black Gardens over the past two weeks shows that the correct mix of removal combined with graveyard hate and the ability to slam the door can go a long way towards fighting the metagame as it exists. The big boon to these strategies over the past year has been the addition of supplemental card advantage engines, from Cleansing Wildfire in Jeskai Ephemerate to Deadly Dispute in Black Gardens. Orzhov Ephemerate can lean on the eponymous instant as a way to brige the gap to its trek to the Undercity.
Sunday’s winner is a repudiation of midrange. Boros Bully can apply pressure in a very different way than Monastery Swiftspear and Affinity and uses multiple small creatures to get the job done. Alexandre Weber also used Basilisk Gate – a common inclusion these days – as a way to go tall and provide another angle of attack. Bully runs enough counterplay to answer midrange’s removal while also having enough game to steal emblems if need be. White remains a hugely important color as it provides defense against both red and Affinity.
I do not think the age of red is over even if the top of the metagame seems to indicate that the strategy is starting to take a dip. Combining the two main varieties of Monastery Swiftspear decks – Reckless Burn and Kuldotha Red – the macro is averaging a Win+ score of 0.79, which is just outside a Top 16 on average. Combined the strategy is the second most popular “archetype” at 12.5% of the Top 32 metagame with an adjusted winner’s (true) volume of 12.65%. Gruul Cascade has been the most popular deck in this field over the past six weeks at 13.54% of the metgame with 13.31% of the adjusted winner’s volume. Faeries is outperforming its actual volume (8.85%) at 9.65% of the true volume. Yet Black Gardens is the big winner, with 8.33% of the Top 32 metagame but 11% of the True Volume, netting the largest gains from actual to adjusted over that span.
So how can you prepare? You have to be resilient to removal and have a good plan for surviving early. I’d also err on the side of having a good plan to mitigate the number of Mwonvuli Acid-Moss’ coming your way. To that end Affinity could be a smart choice of June 10 and 11, but I’d keep an eye on Izzet Faeries. Cheap counter magic is the way to go and one mana removal, whether it’s Skred or Lightning Bolt, is a great way to steal tempo back before applying pressure.
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